From 9 games, only 3 games were won by teams that had the most hitouts.

In some cases a team absolutely dominated the hitout tally but still got thumped on the scoreboard… you know… where it actually matters. *cough Melbourne cough*.

YES! I WON THE HITOUTS! Too bad we lost by 50…

Hitouts are a rubbish, antiquated and deceptive statistic. The only ruck measure that matters is “Hits to Advantage” (HTA), when a ruck is able to direct the ball straight to a teammate for effective possession.

So if HTAs are all that really make any difference in ruck duels, why don’t we focus on them more?

Because most ruckmen in the AFL absolutely suck at HTAs, that’s why. Most ruck contests end with the ball travelling straight to another 50-50 contest on the ground between midfielders anyway. The skill of the ruckmen, for the most part, has only a modest impact on the outcome of the match.

That’s why most AFL teams should get rid of their ruckmen in most games.

The “pure” Ruckman is like an appendix. It served a purpose once upon a time, but it’s no longer needed and should be removed if it’s causing damage.

Gross.

Unless you have a Dean-Cox-style ruckman (who is effectively another midfielder) there is a good chance your side is running around with a lumbering giant who might dominate the total hitout tally (so is seemingly doing his job) but whose skills elsewhere around the park are not quite up to scratch.

The league’s top Ruckmen average around 10-12 HTAs per match. That’s pretty good. If the game is stop-start with a lot of ballups or throwins, your ruckman is definitely pulling his weight if he can give you 3 or 4 HTAs every quarter.

But if you’ve got an average Ruckman, you’re getting at most around 7 or 8 HTAs per match, probably less if they’re up against a quality ruckman. I am wondering whether that is worth the hassle if you’re not getting a really good return from that player elsewhere.

Basically I think AFL teams need to use one of three tactics, depending on the talent they have at their disposal…

TACTIC 1: The Dean Cox Model

You’ve got a ruck who excels at HTAs. You’ve got a ruckmen who can get in amongst elite midfielders and hold his own with good footskills and running ability. You’ve got a ruckman who can go forward and kick a goal or go back and disrupt things significantly. You’ve got a ruckman who doesn’t fade in the fourth quarter. You’ve got gold. Hold on tight and don’t let go.**

The Yardstick

TACTIC 2: The Jarryd Roughead Model

Jarryd Roughead is a forward who can hold his own in the ruck. Basically his aim in the ruck is to deny the opponents a HTA. That’s not all that difficult. Slam a body into the other ruckman in the contest, make sure he can’t just pluck it out of the air without being tackled… do anything you can short of giving away a free kick… and you’re 90% of the way to preventing a HTA. A lot of solidly built players would be capable of that. You don’t need much in the way of special training.

A lot of other teams should use Roughead as a template… train one bulky forward, one bulky midfielder, and one bulky defender in “negating ruckwork.” Let them cover their respective third of the oval, meaning they don’t have to lumber all over the park and fade in the fourth quarter. All they have to do is prevent HTAs. When you’re not up against a Dean Cox, it’s really not all that hard, and you don’t suffer on the scoreboard.

I said SHORT OF GIVING AWAY A FREE KICK JARRYD!

TACTIC 3: The Geelong Model

A bit revolutionary, but bear with me. Central to this tactic is the fact that Geelong are basically the Spanish National Football Team of the AFL… they have an embarassing gluttony of midfield talent.

Collingwood (when Jolly is injured) are the same. Richmond are getting there. Since Kreuzer is arguably better as a forward you can throw Carlton into this mix too.

Whenever these sides are not up against an elite ruckman, these teams should just run out with 6 pure midfielders, forfiet the hitout tally, and still win the midfield because they’re playing “6 mids vs 5 mids + 1 lumbering oaf”

Do you really think Geelong are better off running out with Trent West’s 10 iffy disposals/20 total hitouts/6 HTA per game? Or would they be better off with an extra “pure” midfielder wreaking havoc around the park?

So when Geelong play West Coast… yes… they probably need Trent West’s height or Dean Cox is probably chalking up 20 HTA and giving West Coast a clear scoreboard advantage. But if Geelong are playing Richmond or St Kilda or Port Adelaide or Hawthorn (teams that struggle in the HTA department)… perhaps they don’t need Trent West taking the place of a midfielder who would have better skills around the park and would chalk up 20-odd disposals while giving his team a clear advantage in areas that matter more to the scoreboard than the ruck contest – in-and-under contests and the run-and-carry department.

Crap! It’s below my head. WHAT DO I DO NOW!?

What do you think? Do you think your team should subscribe to TACTIC 1, 2 or 3?

**This is why the Jolly trade kills me. Sydney and Collingwood were apparently arguing over which round draft pick Jolly is worth. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Darren Jolly, even back then, was a proven solid, AFL-calibre ruckman. He’s worth multiple Top 20 draft pick… in a weak draft year make that Top 10 picks. A proven AFL-calibre player is worth so much more than a couple of draft picks.

AFL clubs are obviously enamoured by potential, hoping to find the James “Diamond in the Rough Pick 79″ Hird…so they hold onto draft picks for dear life… but the chances of that happening are close to zero. If I was Sydney I wouldn’t have given up Jolly for anything less than two first-round picks… plus cash… plus maybe Collingwood should’ve thrown in a Lexus for every Sydney player. And even then, I’m hesitating.

With the dawn of GCS and GWS, the expansion of the AFL to 18 sides is a shake-up not seen in our indigenous game since it went national in the 1980s.

Let’s face it – Not everything about that shakeup was good.

In the media and in pubs around the nation, predictions centred around the expansion have ranged from giddy exuberance to doomsday prophecies.

Depending on who you believe, GWS and GCS will either:

• fail to win over crowds in NRL territory and will languish on the field with their ragtag bunch of mercenaries and lightweight youngsters… OR…
• will start to build a genuine fan base North of the Murray, and in 5-10 years will be contenders as their lightweights become heavyweights and the money seduces the superstars

Skoda Stadium – GWS vs Adelaide. Not very encouraging

Reading over countless articles and theories relating to GWS and GCS and the current expansion, I cannot help but wonder if people are forgetting one critical point: the calibre of the product itself.

If you consider the AFL and the game itself a product, then expansion carries a very pronounced risk:

Dilution of talent.

Prior to expansion, the AFL had 16 teams with roughly 40 senior players apiece. That’s 640 players who, according to their own clubs, are capable of withstanding the rigours of the modern professional game. There are highly refined selection processes and full-time scouts in place to make sure that those 40 blokes are the absolute best available to any given team. Those 640 players come from the extremely limited AFL talent pool. We are a nation of 23 million where only half the population even cares about AFL, even fewer play and even fewer play at a high enough level to consider turning pro.

Let’s not kid ourselves: there are not thousands of blokes down in the VFL or WAFL or SANFL, guys who are not listed by any AFL side, who are AFL-calibre players. The simple fact is that if they were AFL-calibre, they’d be on someone’s list. The current leading goalkicker in the VFL is listed by an AFL club, but can’t get a game in the big league and doesn’t look like he will soon, either. The SANFL leading goalkicker is a year removed from Country Footy, and former Magpie Jack Anthony is kicking goals in the WAFL but still isn’t good enough for the Dockers.

He’d get a game for these blokes, surely?

So it is disingenuous to suggest that there are plenty of AFL-calibre players out there who are missing out.

Sure, there are the occasional exceptions like James Podsiadly, but he was a rare fringe player, listed and delisted twice before being picked up by Geelong in a Rookie Draft and getting a chance with an already-elite club.

The key point remains:  On the whole, Senior AFL Lists represent the best of the best, and Rookie Lists represent the best in young talent Australia has to offer.

So are we supposed to believe that in the space of two years, there is an immediate 11% increase in the number of people capable of playing AFL at it’s highest level?

The game simply has not expanded at that rate in junior ranks to suggest that there has been an 11% jump in available top-level talent.

 Even if we believe that GWS and GCS have the best youngsters, that means that in five years time there’ll be players at other clubs who are “past it” still running around the park, since no-one of AFL calibre has come through the ranks and taken their role in the team.

Could someone PLEASE come through the ranks and let Dusty head home to the Rolling Meadows Retirement Complex.

The AFL is risking diluting the product with inferior talent, and if this happens people will notice.

The NBA in America experienced this a few years ago with rapid expansion. Despite being better equipped to handle expansion than the AFL (Due to smaller team sizes and a significantly larger talent pool), the NBA struggled to fill the rosters with NBA calibre athletes. Instead we got mediocre expansion teams… teams defined by relocations, trades, glimpses of hope and unrealised potential. It took years for the talent pool to catch up, and even now, purists will argue that the NBA could afford to lose at least ten teams (out of thirty current teams) for the benefit of the overall average talent on display. Other professional leagues in North America and Europe tell a similar story:

You need talent to sustain expansion.

However, it is now inevitable that in the space of two years, we have two new AFL clubs forced upon us. Eighty brand new and supposedly AFL-calibre players. And perhaps GWS and GCS will be fine, talent-wise, with the recruiting systems they have in place. But other AFL clubs, particularly struggling clubs like North Melbourne or Port Adelaide, will suffer. At the moment they have a list of 40 blokes, a few exceptional talents, maybe 30-odd players who are definitely AFL-level, and a few who are stretching themselves to the limit to be in the AFL. All of a sudden, with a diluted talent pool, their aging players have to hang around a little longer than they should… their exceptionally talented players are still there, so are the solid players… but the ‘stretch’ players are taking up more of the list.

Imagine your team, after a couple of injuries or suspensions. Instead of calling up a bloke who’s been in and out of the squad… they have to call up an untried rookie instead. Or instead of calling on a bloke they think might be ready, they don’t have any such player and have to ask the 32 year old to tag the 23 year old gun from GWS. If the Tamblings and Stantons of the league frustrate you with errant kicking now, imagine relying on a bloke who is VFL-calibre to make a pinpoint pass late in an AFL game.

Yeah, that Voss bloke was rubbish.

640 players to 720 players is an 11% increase in just two years. The sheer mathematics should be making fans uneasy. Combine that with a relatively small talent pool for a major sport, and the potential result is a sport with 11% reduction in overall player calibre. Sure, we have the Dustin Martins, the Tom Scullys, the Marc Murphys and the elite young players to look forward to… and perhaps with 18 men on the park it won’t be as noticeable if 1 or 2 isn’t up to scratch (compared, with, say, a subpar NBA basketballer making up one-fifth of the lineup)… but simple maths tells us that expanding the competition before there the talent pool to bolster the ranks is fraught with danger.

Working in it’s favour is the fact that right now the AFL has a tremendous equality in the competition. Every team has played in a Preliminary Final in the last decade or so, and teams rarely languish in the cellar for more then five years at a stretch. The AFL is not like English soccer, where only a handful of clubs are ever real chances for the title. If a lack-of-talent dilutes the league quality, the effect will be spread out over multiple teams and (perhaps) less noticeable.

So ultimately, does expansion and talent dilution matter at all?

Well I believe so, and here’s the central point:

With the introduction of a Free Agency from 2012, the AFL will have the same number of elite players, spread more thinly across more teams, with better options elsewhere and the means to demand a trade: A recipe for unrest. Players will congregate towards either money or success. The elite players will play at the major clubs or the AFL-subsidised wealthy clubs. The lesser clubs with the smaller support bases will be left behind.

Ahem.

Even today in the AFL there are occasional games where the North-of-the-Murray taunt about “seagulls fighting over hot chips” analogy isn’t too far off mark. If the talent isn’t there, and expansion dilutes the game, we may see more of these type of games, poorer skills, fewer brand new fans, and struggling teams. As teams struggle on the field, they will struggle off the field. They will relocate or merge. They will cut football department spending or go into administration.

The rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer, both in terms of talent and financially.

So ultimately, the expansion of the AFL and the potential reduction in the average calibre of the product itself raises two questions:

Could this, combined with a Free Agency and through the monopolisation of talent, sound the death knell for some currently struggling clubs?

 OR

 If all 18 teams manage to stay afloat, could the lowering of average talent levels impact upon the ability of the indigenous game to attract new fans in the face of global giants?

Both are questions worth asking, even if the AFL doesn’t want to listen.

Piece of cake!

There’s generally a lot of football games on during any given weekend in Britain. It always sucks when you’re watching one game, flick to the next, and miss out on a goal or a red card. Thankfully there are shows like ‘Soccer Saturday’ that have a multitude of reporters to report on all the key events to the viewers exactly as they happen. Great, right? Not exactly..

‘Almost Football Legends’ is probably the only genuinely funny thing on The AFL Footy Show, so it is worthy of a mention here. This is a wrap of the best entries for season 2004 and includes some ripper marks among some great stuff-ups and gaffes worthy of a chuckle or two. And for all the Hawthorn fans out there, see if you can recognise one of your current players making an appearance with what is surely the best goal he has ever scored.

What words or phrases come to you when you think of a professional sport’s medical team? Was one of them ‘directionally challenged’? Probably not, but it looks like a feature of this soccer teams medicos.

-Adam

Jeff Kennett and Friday Funnies will be a good pairing

I am quickly coming to the conclusion that celebrations are the root cause of the funniest moments and fails in sport. We have covered premature celebrations quite frequently but have yet to touch on well-timed yet poorly executed celebrations, such as this girls basketball team. Maybe some heavy lifting in the off-season might be in order to ensure this works a little better next time around.

Having said that, there are still great celebration fails to be visited. In this football match a goalkeeper converts a penalty and rightly celebrates his achievement. However, the opposition takes full advantage at the re-start – with hilarious consequences.

Sportspeople and commercials result in truly funny moments, but none better than this Collingwood ad from 2003 for Sunsilk. Just wonderfully awful – from the bad script to the bad fake laughter. Enjoy!

A quintessential falcon

We all like our sport played by the rules. It means everything is kept in order, except when the referee goes on a power-trip and makes you re-take a penalty again, and again, and again, and again….

Also, it’s nice when you have a passionate coach on board to guide and lead your team. Everyone plays with an extra amount of vigour and intensity. It’s only really a problem when they, I don’t know…maybe when they let that “passion” get to them, and forget they aren’t actually playing the game themselves?

In the first few editions we’ve touched on premature celebrations, but in spite of what we’ve brought you so far, this one has to take the cake. Dude – just put the ball down first!!

-Adam.

We touched on celebration fails last week but this one is a different sort altogether. After nailing the final kick to win a game against Australia, celebrations broke out between the Scottish rugby players with two in particular jumping for joy with painful repercussions….or should that be ‘concussions’?

Now I’m sure newsreading is a lot harder than it looks, especially when the auto-cue is running at warp-speed, like in this clip. It’s hard not to feel for the guy but equally hard not to be amused. Try to watch this all the way – it’s only 4 minutes but it feels like oh so much longer..

Football fans will be well aware of Ian Holloway and his penchant for quirky and entertaining interviews. Back when the 2022 World Cup was awarded to Qatar, Holloway was manager of (then) Premier League team Blackpool. Here he was asked what he thought of shifting football around in that year to allow the World Cup to be played during the Northern winter and not the summer, as is traditionally the case. I’m not sure, but I think he’s not a fan of that idea..

Firstly, it’s always a great feeling when you make that amazing shot or play that brings home the bacon for your team. However, it’s not so great when you go for the premature, over-the-top celebration only to see it get thrown back in your face. Well, at least it’s great when you capture it on video for the rest of us to deliciously enjoy. This clip defines the meaning of ‘it ain’t over ‘till it’s over.’

Great hockey goalies are known for their amazing reflexes, concentration and coolness under pressure. However, I have to agree with the Sam Seaborn pitch on this subject: “I’d hire a sumo wrestler. I’d give him a uniform, transportation, 500 bucks a week to sit in the goal, eat a ham sandwich, and enjoy the game. My team would never get scored on.”

It’s been well documented this week that Michael Clarke and Shane Watson may not be the best of friends. Publicly they both say that everything is swell, but the word is they aren’t exactly BFFs. And I think we’ve pinpointed when it all started to go sour…

Football often gets panned for not being a so-called “real man’s” sport. This cheeky ad shows us why those beefy, no-neck rugby boys disdain those who play the beautiful game.

Please hit us up with funny ideas and suggestions at mikeorthedon@gmail.com or on Facebook or Twitter. Any and every idea will be most welcome!

-Adam

Of course, it wasn’t 100% official until it was Facebook Official©, but once my wife posted the “Totes Pregz.” status update, we exploded the internet.

The reaction on Facebook was a bit overwhelming. Apparently, aside from sapping my wife’s energy, blood supply and ability to eat soft cheeses, my child has the ability to make otherwise sane people travel to a world of “happiness tears,” buttercups and rainbows.

No booze, sushi or cheese? This kid better poop diamonds…

The messages of congratulations and ‘likes’ would have been countless if Facebook didn’t do the counting for us. And yet within an hour, the topic of conversation had moved away from ‘congratulations’ and onto a much more serious discussion: My child and sport.

My brother was the catalyst. A first-time uncle, he immediately vowed to buy my child their first Geelong Cats, Liverpool FC and Chicago Bulls jerseys. My cousin replied that buying a child a Liverpool FC jersey is tantamount to child abuse. I replied that, whatever about AFL and EPL, I would be unashamedly brainwashing my child to support the Boston Celtics.

Step One: Cut umbilical cord. Step Two: Tattoo baby. Step Three: Shave baby’s surprisingly hairy forearms.

The next day, my father-in-law heard about my brother’s vow. Not happening, he said. His grandchild would follow Hawthorn Football Club. I’m paraphrasing, but the basic gist was: “Hawthorn. End of story. Negotiations will not be entered into if you ever want us to babysit.”

Yeah… we might want that.

Clearly, I move in circles where the priorities for a new baby are, in order:

1. Health.
2. Support for (insert team name).
3. Happiness.

As we’ve said before, sport is actually a really healthy habit to get into, and I hope I’m able to raise my child with a well-rounded approach to sport. Not obsessive… healthy.

As such, I’ve made preliminary inquiries at the local golf club. The receptionist thought I was a bit strange signing my child up as a member, particularly when I couldn’t give them a date of birth since it hasn’t happened yet.

But if my child will be raised in a basketball/netball obsessed household in an AFL-mad city.. why golf? Well it’s quite simple really – golf is a game that ensures fresh air, a long career and minimises the risk of major injury.

Also… and I cannot stress this enough… it’s because golf gives my child the best chance of making the most money as soon as possible so his/her Dad can retire at 45 and play PlayStation and eat nachos all day long.

Living. The. Dream.

AFL, soccer and basketball all require a male child to make the kind of money I’d need to cover food, living expenses and the inevitably huge medical bills that will come with my dream lifestyle.

To guarantee success whether we have a son or daughter, and to reach the aforementioned ‘parental retirement’ levels of money as soon as humanly possible, we’re left with golf and tennis. With Tennis Australia in a shambles at the moment, I’m putting my chips on Golf. The plan is to get my child swinging a golf club as early as humanly possible (before the umbilical cord is cut if I can manage).

You think this is a game!? Wipe that smile off your face!

Then I will spend their early years convincing my child that although Mum and Dad’s love is unconditional and unending, everyone else will dislike them unless they play golf very well. It’s a subtle and gentle approach, and although I haven’t done any research whatsoever, I’m pretty sure it’s backed by academics and child psychologists.

So when my Celtics-mad golf-prodigy child hits 15 and turns pro,  I will work hard to ensure that he/she secures as many lucrative endorsement deals as possible. Breweries, sports betting agencies and fast food outlets will pay big bucks for a clean-cut golfing prodigy to be their spokesperson. A tumultuous relationship with a film star/starlet will help boost my child’s profile outside of sport, and is a pretty safe option since teenage film stars are all pretty upstanding citizens.

The natural career arc of the child star.

Some decent results on the professional tour and a couple of endorsement deals later, and I will fulfill my lifelong dream of living vicariously through my child and financially off their success. And, as usual, sport will have made everything better. My child will be rich, successful and contractually tied to heartless corporations for the rest of his/her life.

Fortunately, I won’t have to deal with all of that. I’ll just shamelessly mooch off their fame and fortune until I can top the Global Online FIFA Leaderboard.

I’m looking forward to being a parent.

Prepare to be wowed…

HAWTHORN

Form

I guess the Hawks’ performance last Saturday against the Crows could be summed up pretty simply as ‘just barely good enough.’ The game reminded me of the Cats-Magpies preliminary final of 2007. One team was massively backed, the other was hardly given a chance. Early on – in both games – the heavily favoured team dominated possession and territory yet choked in front and around goal, uncharacteristically fumbled the ball and generally looked a shadow of their usual calm and composed selves. On the few occasions when the other team went down their end, they kicked goals. As such, both Geelong and Hawthorn ultimately only just limped over the line when the result could easily have gone the other way.

Sydney will be hoping Hawthorn have a similar case of the wobbles. The likelihood is that Hawthorn have played their bad August-September game – you know, the game everyone says a good team needs to play to absolve themselves of the ‘Premiership favourite tag.’ Furthermore, it’s quite rare that a good team – especially a team as good as Hawthorn – plays two bad finals games. So whilst their immediate form is less than desirable, the fact is that Hawthorn comfortably beat Collingwood in Week 1 of the finals and finished the season strongly – which included beating the Swans at the SCG in Round 22 and the Eagles in Round 23.

Key Players

Luke Hodge missed the preliminary final with a bad bout of gastro and it will be a much slimmer and energy-deficient No. 15 that will take the field on Saturday. The last time Hodge played in a Grand Final he went in with a cracked rib and duly won the Norm Smith Medal for best player afield so I wouldn’t expect him to be less effective although he will spend more time on the bench. Clearance kings Sam Mitchell and Brad Sewell will be important to ensuring the Hawks get good ball into their forward line, where they will be hoping Franklin, Rioli, Breust, Gunston and co will finish off their hard work. With so many forward options the Swans need to limit the supply further up the field, starting with the midfield but extending to the backline where Suckling, Gibson, Young, Burgoyne and Birchall provide run and carry in the back half to split open the field for their teammates up the field.

Coach

Alistair Clarkson has been here and done it already when he guided the Hawks to their 2008 flag over the Cats. The 44-year old has now racked up 8 seasons in the top job and is mainly famous for bringing the rolling zone defense to the AFL, which then developed into the forward press that is now used by all teams. As a coaching personality he is well-known for his angry moments – punching a wall at the MCG was his most notable moment this year – but all in all, he knows how to get the best out of his troops.

Apparently they were all out of hot chips

When Lance Franklin was sidelined for 6 weeks this season he reshaped the focus of his forward line to devastating effect as the Hawks racked up goals without their star forward. He has also done well to minimise the losses of Brent Guerra, Michael Osborne, Brendan Whitecross, Stephen Gilham and Luke Hodge this finals series.

Focus Areas

Isolating Buddy Franklin as much as possible is key to making sure the Hawks can get their main man some good looks at goal. Stopping Ted Richards coming third man up at contests to cut off attacking thrusts is pivotal to this. Maybe Hawthorn’s defenders can attempt to mark the ball on the odd occasion to limit the amount of stoppages the Swans get in their forward 50. It’s quite doubtful, but we can all dare to dream.

But mainly, the Hawks need to be a little selfish around goals. Too many times against Adelaide did Hawthorn players try to pass the ball from 40-50m out only for it to fail and an opportunity to be missed. Hawthorn’s most devastating asset is their ability to kick goals from long distance – think Suckling, Young, and Birchall drilling goals from 50m and beyond. It breaks the hearts of the opposition.

So hopefully guys like Rioli and Lewis can take a leaf out of those player’s book and line up the big sticks when the opportunity presents. Mainly as it’s so frustrating to see players not want to but not even consider taking a shot at goal to ‘do the team thing’ and pass when sometimes ‘doing the team thing’ is actually kicking a goal. Unless you’re Buddy Franklin – then you’re annoyed he didn’t pass it to the three guys wide open in the goalsquare.

Something Buddy and Kobe Bryant have in common

SYDNEY

Form

Whilst their finals form has been quite brilliant – a 29 point win over the Crows in Adelaide then backing it up last Friday night against their bogey team – the Magpies – at their bogey ground – ANZ Stadium. Looking back a little further and it makes for a little different reading. Three out of their final four home-and-away games were losses – to the Magpies, Hawks and Cats with a comprehensive win over the Bulldogs their only win in that period. It won’t mean much come Saturday, of course, but it does give a deeper indication into how they have fared over recent times.

The Swans in finals games however have been quite impressive. The Crows proved to be a formidable opponent for even the best team in the league and the Swans put them away quite easily in the end, and in enemy territory to boot. They can also look back at their Round 5 demolition of the Hawks with some confidence as well as their ability in Round 22 game against the Hawks to kick clear by more than 6 goals early in the game. In that game their lead was hauled in as they eventually lost by 7 points but they can go into the Grand Final knowing their best can do plenty of damage to their opponents.

Key Players

The form of Ted Richards and Lewis Jetta have been very strong with the latter able to spark the Swans seemingly when required – most effectively so when he ran half the length of the field against the Pies leaving Nathan Brown in his wake to boot a team-lifting goal.

Richards has been a rock in defense by continually chopping off attacks with a reliving mark or timely fist. He will be carrying a leg injury into the game, yet he aggravated the injury early in last week’s game and was able to play with it without any significant drop-off in effectiveness.

If the Swans are to win Adam Goodes will need to be at his best, either in the midfield or up forward. The Crows let him loose a few weeks ago to their detriment so the Swans will look to isolate him in one-on-one situations as much as possible. Sam Reid will need to perform better than his last few games if the Swans are to exploit the Hawk’s defenders weakness to defend effectively in one-on-one situations. Also, former Hawk Josh Kennedy has had two dominant games against his former team this year, polling 5 Brownlow votes. If he can keep his form going into Saturday then Hawthorn will have their hands full around the contests.

Coach

John Longmire has only been in the hot seat for two seasons and has performed exceedingly well in the job. He has done well in bringing along a fairly young group, including Alex Johnson, Nick Smith, Daniel Hannebury and Lewis Jetta who have all come along in leaps and bounds over the last two seasons.

Focus Areas

Josh Gibson has had a fantastic season for the Hawks. Most notably, he has nullified his team’s weaknesses in defense by assisting his teammates in aerial contests to spoil the ball. Whoever the Swans have on Gibson must keep him in check to make sure their fellow forwards can get a clear shot at marking the ball. Adelaide did this well last week as Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett got free to continually mark the ball in contested situations. The Swans must also pressure the Hawks backline and midfield as much as possible to force turnovers and not allow easy delivery into their forward line.

Gibson will be a fistful for the Swans to handle….zing!

Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke will need to take control of the ruck where the Hawks have a clear deficiency as neither Jarryd Roughead nor David Hale are dominant ruckmen. If they can give the Swans first use of the ball more often they will go a long way to kicking a winning score. Also, if Rhyce Shaw can use his run and dash to move the ball quickly out of the backline the Swans will create more options going forward.

Worthy Notes

The Swans record at the MCG this year is pretty disastrous – they have not won in their last 9 games at the home of footy. However, they have only played once this year at the venue – a 29 point loss to Richmond. The Hawks have won 12 of their last 15 games at the ‘G – their only losses being to the Cats (twice) and the Tigers – the only teams they have been unable to defeat this season.

The predicted wet and cold conditions shouldn’t favour either team as both are strong around the stoppages.

Verdict

There is no doubt the Swans have the ability and strength across the ground to win this Grand Final. The problem is that I believe they will have to rely on the Hawks to underperform in order to do so. Simply put, if both teams play at their optimal level then the Hawks win, and even if the Hawks aren’t at their best they have shown an ability to win when playing poorly – a quality the Swans have lacked this season. The Swans should keep pace with the Hawks but in the end the brown and gold will prevail.

Sadly it will probably be the poo brown and gold to prevail

In summary: Hawks by 11 points

Norm Smith Medal: Sam Mitchell – the clearance king will get a lot of the ball and will probably bob up to kick an important goal or two when it matters most.

-Adam

That saying has been hanging on my wall for over six years years now. Above it, in the same frame, is a picture of Lance Armstrong cycling down the Champs-Élysées – Arc de Triumph in the background – flanked by his Team Discovery team mates.

Is this the smile of a winner or a guy getting away with something…?

This shot was taken on the final stage of the 2005 Tour de France, capturing Lance Armstrong’s seventh consecutive Tour de France victory. It was a 21^st gift and it’s hung in every room I’ve lived in since. I’ve always had the suspicion that the saying was copied from one of those highly cliché motivational posters, but that never bothered me; it was Lance Armstrong.

The guy that at 22 years of age was the youngest road racing world champion ever. The guy that in 1996 was the number one ranked cyclist in the world. The guy that in October of 1996 (at 26 years old) was diagnosed with stage three testicular cancer that then spread to his lungs, abdomen and brain. The guy that was told by doctors he had about a 40% chance of living[1]. The guy that battled and ultimately beat cancer, returned to the sport he’d once conquered and won a record breaking seven Tour de France titles from 1999 – 2005, solidifying himself as the greatest athlete cycling had ever known.[2]

It was Lance Armstrong. I’d seen him dominate the Tour de France, I’d watched all the commercials, I’d bought and read all his books, I had a collection of Livestrong bands, and I even had a maillot jaune replica of his days with the U.S. Postal Service Pro Cycling Team. I worshiped the guy; he was one of my sporting heroes.

For six years I’ve looked up at that frame with a reverence that borders on the mythological. After recent revelations I’m not sure what to think anymore.
I’m confused because so far all I’ve got to go on are two radically different stories from two competing parties. I know who and what I want to believe but I’m also slowly confined to what may be an inevitable truth.[3]

In June of this year the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) charged Armstrong with drug trafficking and using banned steroids, the red blood cell booster erythropoietin (EPO) and human growth hormone as well as illegal blood transfusions dating back to 1986. Last week USADA’s CEO, Travis T. Tygart said Armstrong would be stripped of his seven Tour de France titles and be handed a lifetime ban after refusing to contest charges.

The headlines were everywhere: “Lance Armstrong Stripped of Tour De France Titles.” Unfortunately – at least for Travis Tygart and USADA – the headlines are false…at least for now. The simple fact is that the races in question took place in France and the USADA do not have the right to sanction him. That falls to cycling‘s world governing body – the Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI) – or the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS). Until USADA produce sufficient evidence to the UCI, Lance Armstrong is still a seven time Tour de France winner.

As opposed to a seven time Tour de Frenchness Champion…

The evidence? USADA claims to have incriminating blood samples taken in 2009 and 2010 (the last two years of Armstrong’s cycling career) and testimonies from up to 10 former team-mates.

For his part, Lance Armstrong replied with a measure of helplessness and frustration. In his official press release Armstrong talked of the toll it was taking on his family before admitting an unwillingness to participate in “a process that is so one-sided and unfair.” He went further by describing Travis Tygart’s investigation as an “unconstitutional witch hunt.” As a result, he would not contest the USADA charges.

Armstrong has never failed a drug test. He was tested in competitions and out of competitions. He gave blood and urine and was tested at the Olympics, the Tour de France, and dozens if not hundreds of other events. And he never failed a test.

So why not fight the USADA charges? With a reputation and legacy and competitiveness as big as Lance Armstrong, why not fight? For many, Armstrong’s refusal to even contest the USADA charges is tantamount to an admission of guilt. Couple that with the carefully planned media release (which in an overly sanitised sports world is more than a little transparent to us) you have what seems to be a guilty and former champion, right?

I’m sensing a pattern…

Blood and urine usually don’t lie and if all the USADA have are testimonies, then what is the point of drug testing (and the USADA’s existence) in the first place? If the USADA are going to charge someone with doping, strip them of their titles and place a lifetime competitive ban on them based purely on competitor testimonies then why test blood and urine samples…in any sport, at any time? The answer is because a monitoring-system of drug and doping offenses based on the testimonies of fellow competitors is one of the most ludicrous…in fact it’s not even worth mentioning. Lance Armstrong’s media release might have had an element of transparency to it, but the USADA charges seem to be borderline hypocrisy.

In journalism school we’re taught that there are always two sides to every story and that each side should be given equal time. Unfortunately, that means having no way of knowing where, or what the truth really is.

Only one man knows the truth.

And that’s where I find myself. I’ve read, listened and know both sides, yet I’m still no closer to knowing the truth. I want to believe in the man and the words that hang on my wall. If it turns out Lance Armstrong didn’t achieve his titles and accolades fairly I may have to reconsider them. For now, that frame remains proudly featured on my wall.

Thanks Lance

– Brendan.